BACKGROUNDA novel influenza virus has emerged to produce a worldwide pandemic 4 instances in the previous 100 years, ensuing in thousands and thousands of infections, hospitalizations and deaths.
There is substantial uncertainty about when, the place and the way the following influenzapandemic will happen.METHODSWe developed a novel mathematical mannequin to chart the evolution of an influenzapandemic. We estimate the possible burden of future influenzapandemics by well being and financial endpoints.
An essential part of that is the adequacy of present hospital-resource capability. Using a simulated inhabitants reflective of Ottawa, Canada, we mannequin the potential impression of a future influenzapandemic below totally different mixtures of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions.
RESULTSThere was substantial variation in projected pandemic impression and outcomes throughout intervention situations.
In a inhabitants of 1.2 million, the sickness assault fee ranged from 8.4% (all interventions) to 54.5% (no interventions); peak acute care hospital capability ranged from 0.2% (all interventions) to 13.8% (no interventions); peak ICU capability ranged from 1.1% (all interventions) to 90.2% (no interventions); and mortality ranged from 11 (all interventions) to 363 deaths (no interventions).
Associated estimates of financial burden ranged from CAD $115 million to over $2 billion when prolonged mass college closure was carried out.CONCLUSIONSChildren accounted for a disproportionate variety of pandemic infections, notably in family settings.
Pharmaceutical interventions successfully decreased peak and whole pandemic burden with out affecting timing, whereas non-pharmaceutical measures delayed and attenuated pandemic wave development.
The well timed implementation of a layered intervention bundle appeared possible to protect hospital useful resource adequacy in Ottawa.
The adaptable nature of this mannequin supplies worth in informing pandemic preparedness coverage planning in conditions of uncertainty, as situations may be up to date in actual time as extra knowledge develop into accessible.
However-given the inherent uncertainties of mannequin assumptions-results must be interpreted with warning.